Tourism sectors have gone through a very difficult and challenging period globally. Over the last four years, tourism has declined, first as a result of the pandemic restrictions and then of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Although much of Europe is far from the fighting, it seems that overseas visitors in particular cancelled or postponed their visits to the continent in the first half of 2022. In the two hinterland countries, too, the sector can only operate under difficult conditions, developing new and specific solutions to previous practices. In this analysis, we look at the state of tourism in Ukraine and Russia, and briefly also look at the situation in Europe in the light of the war. We also report on the damage to monuments, cultural and religious assets that play such a major role in tourism in Ukraine over the last nearly three years.
International law on the meaning of cultural property and war damage
Cultural property is defined in the international convention adopted in The Hague in 1954. According to this convention, the following is to be considered cultural property regardless of its origin or ownership:
(a) movable or immovable property of great importance to the cultural heritage of every people, such as monuments of architecture, art or history, whether religious or secular; archaeological sites; groups of buildings which, as a whole, are of historical or artistic interest; works of art; manuscripts, books and other objects of artistic, historical or archaeological interest; as well as scientific collections and important collections of books or archives or of reproductions of the property defined above;
(b) buildings whose main and effective purpose is to preserve or exhibit the movable cultural property defined in sub-paragraph (a) such as museums, large libraries and depositories of archives, and refuges intended to shelter, in the event of armed conflict, the movable cultural property defined in sub-paragraph (a);
(c) centers containing a large amount of cultural property as defined in sub-paragraphs (a) and (b), to be known as “centers containing monuments”. (1954 Hague Convention)
Cultural property will inevitably be the victim of attacks and clashes during wars. The opposing parties must, however, do their utmost to ensure that this type of property is not damaged, or is damaged as little as possible. Article 53 of the Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I) specifies the protection of cultural property and places of worship:
“Without prejudice to the provisions of the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict of 14 May 1954, and of other relevant international instruments, it is prohibited:
- to commit any acts of hostility directed against the historic monuments, works of art or places of worship which constitute the cultural or spiritual heritage of peoples;
- to use such objects in support of the military effort;
- to make such objects the object of reprisals.” (Nagy – Jeney, 2002)
In this spirit, international documents, the UN and its specialised body, UNESCO, call on warring parties to protect cultural property from destruction. However, despite their best efforts, irreplaceable buildings and artefacts are destroyed in many parts of the world after most wars. In addition to their cultural value, their economic and material value is also high, since cultural assets and monuments are not only of ideological but also of economic benefit to a country. In most cases, their restoration after war is only partially possible, which is also affected by the fact that most cultural monuments and buildings can be irreparably damaged in the fighting.
Another part of the damage is the disappearance of art treasures from their former locations, such as museums, galleries and warehouses. Another common scenario in wars is that soldiers of the enemy state or other entities start looting, stealing the art treasures and cultural artefacts stored in the country. These often reappear already during the war, mainly on the black market, making it difficult to trace the real culprits. The Convention on the Means of Prohibiting and Preventing the Illicit Import, Export and Transfer of Ownership of Cultural Property, relating to such crimes, was adopted in 1970 with the help of UNESCO. Its aim is to prevent illicit trafficking, so it is divided into three parts that can be instruments in this: prevention, recovery and restitution, as well as international cooperation. The Convention also covers the prohibition of the import and export of cultural goods and introduced the need to obtain export certificates (Decree-Law No 2 of 1979).
The destruction and disappearance of cultural property and artefacts is therefore regulated in several sources, but this does not prevent their destruction. The primary objective of the aggressor state with this may be twofold: on the one hand, to gain economic benefit by the theft of artefacts, and on the other hand, to attempt to erase national or collective identity in this way (Winchester, 2022). Furthermore, although international law deals with the destruction of cultural and built heritage as a secondary crime, at times it has been linked to crimes against humanity. During the bombing of a building, it is common for there to be human casualties, and thus not only the built monument but also the civilian victims of the country concerned are implicated in the attack.
The extent of economic damage in the Russian-Ukrainian war – silent victims: cultural assets
Following the events of February 2022, news reports of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cultural property or monuments became increasingly common. In some cases, these sites were deliberately targeted, but there have also been cases where damage was caused as an aftermath of an attack.
UNESCO started working on the first of these cases in Ukraine on two fronts: in addition to assessing the damage and possible restoration, a programme was launched to inventory the buildings and monuments that are still intact and to use technology to record them (UNESCO, 2023). This was necessary to ensure that if these sites were hit, there would be records that could be used to facilitate reconstruction. In February 2024, UNESCO published a report detailing the damage the war had caused to Ukrainian cultural life until that point. The total value of the damage caused to the sectors concerned reached USD 3,500 million at that time. This figure represents an increase of 40% compared to 2023, when UNESCO estimated the damage to date at USD 2,600 million (UNESCO, 2024a). This also shows that the expansion of the fighting is not sparing built and cultural heritage. The estimated value relates to 4,779 cultural and tourist assets declared to UNESCO by the Ukrainian authorities. The detailed list includes the following items:
- damage to sites and buildings of historic interest – USD 2,441 million;
- damage to works of art, collections and cultural storage – USD 161 million;
- damage to buildings and workshops in the cultural and creative industries – USD 262 million;
- damage to tourist facilities – USD 650 million (UNESCO, 2024a).
UNESCO’s report also points out that the reconstruction should start fairly soon, to the extent possible, also for preservation purposes. They calculate that Ukraine would need to raise US$9 billion for these initial steps, but as the attacks are ongoing, this could rise by up to 30% per year, given the intensity and damage caused previously (UNESCO, 2024a).
The KSE Institute in Kiev has also estimated the amount of damage to monuments and cultural property during the war. According to the 2023 report, historic buildings and cultural centres in particular suffered extensive and often irreparable damage. Monuments were the least damaged by attacks, with a total of USD 200,000 in damage by February 2023 (KSE Institute, 2023).
Figure 2: Categories of cultural property damaged during the war, by value of assessed damage, between February 2022 and February 2023 in Ukraine, in millions of USD. Data source: KSE Institute, 2023.
According to the report, the first year of the war wreaked havoc on the country’s cultural life. The KSE Institute estimates that the damage in the first 12 months amounted to USD 1.5 billion, including only built heritage and not collections and artefacts. It can be seen that the calculations of UNESCO and the KSE Institute do not arrive at the same result. The discrepancy may be due to UNESCO’s wider access to cultural property in Ukraine, as they had already recorded cultural property in the country previously and their censuses allowed them to obtain more accurate results. In addition, UNESCO is the primary international organisation to which damage is reported, so the reports it receives cover a broader spectrum than the data measured by the KSE Institute.
The war has been going on for more than two and a half years, so it is also worth looking at what the 2024 reports show in terms of cultural damage. Most of the attacks in this area have still been in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv, with a total of 243 religious and cultural monuments and built heritage damaged so far.
The report published by UNESCO also details the names of the damaged buildings and monuments. Irreplaceable sites such as the Cathedral of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary in Kharkov, the Korolenko State Scientific Library, also in Kharkov, and a large part of the museums in Odessa were also victims of the war. In some cases, entire historic city centres, scientific and educational sites, and listed residential buildings were damaged in the attacks (UNESCO, 2024b). According to February 2024 data, 456 religious and cultural buildings had suffered war damage. With fighting intensifying this year, it is expected that this figure will rise in the next report.
The impact of the war on the tourism sector in Ukraine
The damage to monuments and cultural assets caused by war not only results in a loss in the identity of the society and nation of the country concerned, but also reduces the number of tourists. One of the first effects of war is a radical drop in the number of foreigners arriving in a given country mainly for tourism, even before the fighting starts. The reason is understandable, as there is no guarantee of their personal safety. In the years before the war, Ukraine became a popular destination for travellers: the low prices, the natural beauty, the sites suitable for both spa and active tourism all invited those interested to a post-Soviet state with a long tradition of hospitality. It is no coincidence that the major low-cost airlines had started to operate flights across Ukraine, having recognised the economic potential early on.
Tourism and recreation units account for about 15% of the total area of Ukraine, i.e. 9.1 million ha (Naherniuk – Rybchak, 2017). There are a particularly high number of mineral water extraction points, which are used for a number of purposes in addition to medicinal ones. 64,000 cubic metres of mineral water per day were used during the peacetime years. The number of people employed in the sector is also high, with a permanent workforce of between 3% and 4.5% of the total active labour force, and a further 1 million seasonal workers in the tourism sectors (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2023). By improving competitiveness, Ukraine could become one of the region’s premier tourist destinations, but the current geopolitical situation does not allow this. During the last years of peace, between 2016 and 2019, tourism accounted for 4% of Ukraine’s GDP, a much lower share than in other countries with similar conditions (UNWTO, 2024). This low figure is due to several reasons: for a long time, the state had neglected targeted support to boost tourism, and a country image that would have facilitated the development of the sector had not been established either.
Resort development, tourism strategies and programmes are also lacking, and international experience has not been incorporated into new developments (Олійник – Діченко, 2023). In the early 2010s, a new approach to this area too was started, but the events in Kiev in 2013 and Crimea in 2014 caused the country’s domestic political situation to falter so much that the results of the changes made were also affected by the crisis. According to previous surveys from 2015-2016, 97% of tourists who chose to visit Ukraine came as part of a private trip. 32.2% of them came from Moldova, 13.7% from Belarus, 11% from Russia, 9.5% from Hungary and 8.9% from Poland (Naherniuk – Rybchak, 2017). As a result of the restrictions and sanctions imposed on entry after the events of 2014, not only the number of people who wish to travel to Ukraine has changed, but also their composition. Arrivals from Belarus and Russia, i.e. at least 24.7% of the total foreign tourists, have disappeared or have been sharply reduced. Another important conclusion can be drawn from the list of countries from which tourists came: due to the poorly developed country image and lack of information on tourism opportunities, visitors to Ukraine mainly came from neighbouring countries, with hardly any visitors from Western or Southern European countries. However, visitors from these countries could be key, as they come from higher-income countries and would use higher level services, and thus could also provide more revenue to the Ukrainian tourism sector.
Figure 4: Changes in tourist arrivals and tourism revenues in Ukraine from 2010 to 2023. Source of data: UNWTO, 2024.
2013 was the last year in Ukrainian tourism when both the number of tourists arriving in the country and the amount of tourism revenues reached a positive record: 24.67 million foreign tourists visited Ukraine that year, and the sector’s revenues reached USD 5,100 million (UNWTO, 2024). Subsequently, following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the numbers started to drop significantly. In 2014, the number of tourists halved to 12.71 million, while revenues also declined to USD 1,600 million (UNWTO, 2024). The loss of valuable tourist areas such as Crimea and Sevastopol therefore had an almost immediate impact on the sector’s performance. In the years that followed, the sector stagnated, the fighting was of varying intensity and did not extend beyond the eastern part of the country yet, so the tourism sector did not have to experience a complete shutdown.
Between 2015 and 2019, an average of 13.7 million tourists arrived annually in the country’s more peaceful areas, but the revenue they generated averaged only USD 1,300 million per year (UNWTO, 2024). In a country at war, with unstable internal political conditions, hosts cannot provide the same quality of facilities they used to, nor can they apply the previous prices, so the revenue side suffered greatly in these years. The travel restrictions caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic hit the Ukrainian tourism sector in an upward phase, with improvements visible in the years before. This was pushed into negative territory by the pandemic, reaching unprecedented lows in tourist numbers and revenues. In 2020, 3.14 million foreigners arrived in Ukraine, generating USD 400 million in revenue, a fraction of the amounts in previous years (UNWTO, 2024). A year later, when most of the restrictions had started to be lifted, tourism also seemed to be expanding, but the joy proved premature. In 2022, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war set back the sector’s performance again. With the fighting more intense and widespread than before, fewer and fewer people undertook trips to Ukraine, with 2.17 million people registered in 2022 and 2.4 million in 2023, providing a total of USD 1,700 million in revenues for the sector over two years (UNWTO, 2024).
The fall in the number of tourists has also been accompanied by a fall in tax revenues for the sector in some regions. Understandably, the shrinkage can be mainly observed in the eastern part of Ukraine as well as in some regions in the central part of the country. However, the western part of the country has seen significant growth. Compared with the figures for 2021, the last peaceful year before the war, the volume of tourism tax revenues in 2023 was significantly higher, which can also be explained by the higher number of visitors to the western regions.
Kherson region suffered the most significant decrease in tourism tax revenues, not coincidentally, as the area has been affected several times and significantly during the war. The region, which used to attract a large number of tourists with its coastline, well-developed infrastructure and high-quality catering facilities, has become a shadow of its former self. The other four eastern regions as well as the northeastern regions are in a similar situation. These figures are in stark contrast to those recorded in the western regions of the country. These areas saw a significant increase in tourism tax revenues in 2023 compared to 2021. Lviv region stands out among the provinces, where 60% more of this type of tax was paid last year than two years earlier, before the outbreak of the war (Statistics of Ukrainian Tourism, 2024). The figures recorded in Transcarpathia (+58%), Chernivtsi (+58%) and Khmelnytskyi (+45%) were also high. The reason behind this phenomenon is security: with the exception of Lviv region, there has been no fighting in these areas so far that has caused personal injuries.
Most tourists continue to choose Ukraine for their holidays because of the relatively low price level, good value for money, and the remaining cultural and religious sites in the more peaceful areas. There is also another group of foreign visitors who arrive in Ukraine in an organised way, but as part of a kind of disaster tourism. For them, the damaged buildings and the legacy of war are of interest, so they visit these areas. Just as years ago curious tourists came to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant site, now they come to towns and villages that have been hit by fighting previously. Local guides have set up itineraries that allow visitors to experience the horrors of war. One such guided tour, for example, takes tourists through the Kiev suburbs of Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel and Borodyanka, while also telling them about the events that took place there (Culverwell, 2024). According to one report, there were tourists arriving already in the summer of 2022 to specifically visit these sites, and in the summer of 2023, several such tours were running daily (Culverwell, 2024). The cost of a guided tour is USD 120, a significant part of which is used to support the Ukrainian army.
Another unique solution to boost tourism and increase revenues has been developed by the Visit Ukraine tourism company. They started to roll out a service to visitors that was initially launched as a pilot project. The idea is that for a fee of USD 2,000, a guest can, in addition to traditional tourism (relaxation, excursions, visits to monuments), also carry out a humanitarian mission. A “Donation Tour” is made up of the following elements: after visiting a city, participants attend a first aid course to learn how to treat war injuries. The next day, with local guides, they travel to formerly occupied areas, where they can choose to distribute aid to health institutions or provide heating equipment and building materials to those in need (Visit Ukraine, 2024). The unique tourism solutions have proved successful so far, with tax revenues and the number of inbound tourists showing that foreigners are still interested in Ukraine despite the war.
In addition to fundraising tours, religious tourism is still considerable despite the war. Events attracting tourists from both within and outside Ukraine have an impact on the Ukrainian tourism sector, since guests may stay for several days during the course of an event. Ukraine has a large number of religious pilgrimage sites, many of which are located in the western, currently more peaceful part of the country. In addition to basilicas and churches, there are a number of old monasteries and other religious sites dating back to the 13th and 14th centuries which are of particular interest to the visiting public. In addition to the architectural and monumental values, the main attraction for the visitors who specifically visit these sites is of course the association with religious events (church celebrations, feasts, etc.). The number of religious pilgrims has not been specifically measured in the Ukrainian tourism data, and only censuses of individual events can be relied upon for an estimate. According to these estimates, more than 100,000 foreign visitors arrive in the country each year due to religious tourism, which is a significant figure compared to other types of visits (Panchenko – Kolisnichenko, 2022).
In addition to Christian denominations, Ukraine also has a high number of Jewish tourists, including Hasidic Jewish tourists. For example, Uman, 200 km south of the Ukrainian capital, is one of the most visited places by Hasidic Jews. Tens of thousands of people come here during Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, mainly to visit the tomb of the great-grandson of Rabbi Nachmann, the founder of the Hasidic movement (Times of Israel, 2024). Even war and frequent air raids cannot deter these pilgrims. During this year’s holiday, 35,000 Hasidic Jews arrived in the city, not only from neighbouring countries but from Israel itself (Times of Israel, 2024). This also confirms that religious tourism has remained buoyant despite the war, whether Christian, Jewish or other denominations.
The events in Crimea in 2014, travel restrictions due to Covid-19 in 2020, and the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 have all had a negative impact on the development of tourism in Ukraine. Due to the high value of the war damage and the uncertainty of how much more damage will be caused by the war, Ukraine is currently more of an interesting destination for tourists than a nice and relaxing one. Frequent air raids also make it difficult to relax, while traffic disruptions and power cuts can also contribute to an unpleasant experience. It is no coincidence that most countries do not recommend travelling to Ukraine. In the post-war recovery of the tourism sector, it will be important not only to rebuild the built heritage, but also to reform the sector at state level.
The impact of the war on tourism in Russia
It is mostly the Ukrainian economy that is in the focus in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian war, but Russia has also undergone major transformations over the past more than two and a half years. There have been a number of difficulties in the economy, some of which have been triggered by international sanctions, others by Russian foreign policy thinking. Tourism has been affected by both sanctions and direct warfare, therefore the sector has undergone a marked transformation in Russia in recent years.
Figure 6: Changes in tourist arrivals and tourism revenues in Russia from 2010 to 2023. Source of data: UNWTO, 2024.
Between 2010 and 2014, a total of 138.6 million tourists visited Russia, which means that an average of 27.72 million people chose Russian destinations each year. Tourism revenues steadily increased during this period, rising from USD 8,800 million in 2010 to USD 11,800 million in 2014 (UNWTO, 2024). Thanks to these positive trends, Russia became the 9th most visited country in the world in 2013 and the 7th most visited country in Europe. It hosted the Winter Olympics in 2014 and the 2018 FIFA World Cup, with these events also increasing the number of visitors to the country. The share of tourism in Russia’s GDP is similar to that of Ukraine, averaging between 3.5% and 4% (UNWTO, 2024). In 2018, the target for the future was 5%, but this was hampered first by the coronavirus pandemic and then by international sanctions imposed because of the Russian-Ukrainian war (SPIEF’25, 2022).
Following the events in Crimea in 2014, no restrictions were yet imposed to block travel to Russia. Rather, sanctions imposed some travel restrictions on officials in Russia and Crimea, but this did not yet affect tourism in Russia. However, Moscow did not make it easy for foreign tourists to enter the country, with many difficulties in obtaining visas and crossing the border, especially from EU countries. Despite this, the number of tourists did not start to decline significantly after 2014; instead, the decline began in 2016 (UNWTO, 2024). Inbound tourism stagnated between 2016 and 2019, before the unprecedented drop in tourist numbers caused by the 2020 pandemic travel restrictions. In 2020, a total of 6.36 million foreigners arrived in Russia, generating USD 3,900 million in tourism revenues (UNWTO, 2024). The numbers were slow to improve, with 7.08 million tourists choosing Russia as their destination a year later in 2021 and 8.24 million in 2022. Moscow reacted with tougher responses to the international sanctions due to the war in 2022.
Today, it is impossible to travel directly to Russia by air from an EU airport, and no airline operates flights to Moscow or even St Petersburg. Foreign bank cards cannot be used in the country; only instruments issued in Russia can be used by foreigners, and cash is also accepted. Most travel costs have thus risen significantly, and it is no wonder that few residents of European countries choose to holiday in Russia. Most consular services put Russia in the category of not recommended for travel, advising tourists to plan their holidays after the conflict has been resolved (MFA Hungary, 2024).
Figure 7: Changes in the number of trips to Russia from certain countries between 2021 and 2023 (number of trips in 1,000). Source of data: Statista.com, 2024.
Tourists are forced to enter Russia from other countries due to restrictions and difficult entry conditions. The figure shows how the number of entries from certain countries to Russia changed between 2021 and 2023. While the volume of entries from Ukraine decreased radically (from over 3.9 million in 2021 to 211,000 in 2023), understandably, the volume of entries from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and other countries in the post-Soviet region increased significantly (Statista.com, 2024). This underlines the fact that foreigners are arriving in the Eastern European state from airports near Russia and with a direct flight to it rather than from European airports. From a cost point of view, this option is significantly more expensive, as it involves at least two connecting flights.
Changes in tourism in Russia also reflect the current orientation of Russian foreign policy. While the number of European tourists has decreased, residents of China, India, the post-Soviet region and other friendly states are visiting Russia more and more often. In 2023, China, Germany, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates were the main source countries of foreign visitors to Russia (Russian Travel Digest, 2024). According to customs statistics, 3.5 times more people entered the country last year than the year before (Russian Travel Digest, 2024). The number of Chinese tourists entering Russia in 2023 was nearly 200,000, mainly due to the visa-free regime introduced in August 2023. The initiative has led to an increase not only in holiday tourism but also in retail trade in Chinese settlements along the Russian border. Russian citizens living here often cross to the Chinese side to shop for electronics and light industry products. It is also common for them to seek medical treatment in nearby Chinese cities, such as Heihe, rather than in Russia (Global Times, 2023). 580,000 Russian and Chinese tourists took advantage of the visa-free travel between the two countries between 1 August 2023 and 1 August 2024 (Russian Travel Digest, 2024).
India has not yet been granted this type of exemption, but Russia has hinted at facilitation. From 2025, Moscow will allow all foreigners with Indian passports to enter without a visa (Times of India, 2024). In the first half of 2024, 28,500 Indian tourists entered Russia, an increase of one and a half times compared to the same period last year (Times of India, 2024). The rise of Indian companies in Russia could also encourage travel, with many foreigners applying for tourist visas for business purposes. It is expected that the introduction of visa-free travel will lead to a rapid increase in the number of Indian tourists, allowing citizens of another country after China and Iran to visit Russia without such restrictions.
Both the Chinese and the Indian examples illustrate that Russia’s deepening external relations have begun to extend beyond the economic and into the tourism sector. Instead of fewer European and American tourists, Moscow is looking to new partner countries to boost tourism. To do so, it is trying to use all possible means, from large-scale marketing campaigns to visa-free travel.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on European tourism
In the first year after the coronavirus pandemic, most European countries started to relax their regulations, allowing travel again, while maintaining a number of criteria. However, after the first year, the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2022 shifted the structure of tourism. Although the fighting between the two countries does not directly affect European countries in practice, the sanctions, the lack of Ukrainian and Russian tourists, the more difficult entry conditions to Russia and the dangerous nature of visits to Ukraine all have an impact on tourism on the continent.
Figure 8: Tourist arrivals by continent, 2021-2023 (in millions). Source of data: UNWTO, 2024.
Following the complete lifting of travel restrictions, European tourism started to recover from 2022, with a doubling of arrivals compared to 2021 (UNWTO, 2024). Similar trends can be seen in the other continents when comparing these years. The figures for 2023 show a further increase, but at a slower pace compared to the previous years. Behind this slowdown, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the resulting lack of tourists, mainly from the US, who had so far been keen to relax in the two countries’ favourite destinations, are already in evidence. The other important factor is that the energy crisis caused by the war has had an impact on tourism in several ways, changing travel patterns.
Between 2020 and 2022, inflation levels in most European countries, and globally, started to rise from their low levels. The resulting price rises have led to a slowdown in consumption, which has also been reflected in the tourism sector. Accommodation providers, transport operators and caterers have also faced another problem, namely a sharp rise in energy prices. Rising oil prices due to the war have also affected travel, as rising airfares have made it difficult to travel relatively cheaply. The disappearance by 2023 of several routes that had previously provided shorter distances between destinations was also a factor. As a result of the war, airspace over some areas of Ukraine and Russia is not sufficiently secure, so avoiding these areas requires longer journeys and more fuel.
Figure 9: Number of tourists arriving in selected European countries in 2019 and 2023 (in millions). Source of data: UNWTO, 2024.
When comparing the 2019 and 2023 data of the European countries most visited by tourists, seven countries saw an increase in tourist arrivals last year. While Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland all saw an increase, it was really significant in only three of the seven countries: Croatia, Denmark and France. For the other four destinations, growth rates were typically less than 10% (UNWTO, 2024).
The case of Denmark is striking, with 14.73 million arrivals from abroad in 2019, while in 2023 it had more than doubled to 32.5 million foreigners (UNWTO, 2024). It is the Nordic country with the highest number of tourists in 2023, despite being the smallest of the countries in the region in terms of area. The Danish government has long been developing certain tourism sectors, steadily increasing the number of inbound foreigners. Denmark has a good security rating, is economically developed and attractive from a tourism point of view, with many popular tourist destinations and cultural treasures. In October 2024, Copenhagen announced a new tourism strategy programme: 10 million kroner has been earmarked for the period 2024-2027 to promote domestic tourism, and Visit Denmark, a state tourism organisation, will be subsidised with 44 million kroner in state funding for further marketing campaigns (The Local Denmark, 2024). The new strategy sets tourism revenues at 200 billion kroner by 2030. In order to avoid mass tourism, efforts are being made to achieve a balanced reception of tourists. To this end, the aim is that by 2030, 70% of guest nights should be booked outside the peak season in July and August (The Local Denmark, 2024).
In most of the countries surveyed, tourism growth rates were lower than indicated, or there were none at all and there was a decline compared to 2019. Significant declines are also seen in Italy, Germany and Hungary. In 2019, 64.51 million foreign arrivals were recorded in Italy, falling to 57.25 million in 2023 (UNWTO, 2024). The previous trend of travel has only slowly started to return here too after the lifting of travel restrictions following the coronavirus, and the impact of price increases is also clearly felt in Italy. The number of Russian tourists arriving in Italy is relatively low, with an average of 500,000-600,000 visitors per year, so their absence does not cause a major loss to tourism.
In the event of a drop in the number of tourists, there are also trips already booked but cancelled. Planning has therefore been done, but in many cases the outbreak of the war, even for countries far from Ukraine, has had a negative impact. The Net Sentiment Score (NSS) is a measure of overall sentiment – whether positive, negative or neutral – towards an organisation or situation. It is an aggregate measure that is critical for gauging public sentiment and developing reputation management strategies. According to an NSS survey conducted in March 2022, the perception of European destinations dropped by -15 points compared to destinations on other continents (Goodger, 2022). Estonia topped the detailed list with -90 points, followed by Poland with -70 points and Lithuania with -56 points (Goodger, 2022). These countries were considered by foreign tourists as the most dangerous in the first year of the invasion. Greece received the highest positive rating with +21 points, meaning that it was the place most people would have chosen to relax (Goodger, 2022).
Another interesting and influential factor is the news and experiences people started sharing on social media after the war broke out. There were many posts in the last days of February 2022 in which people who were planning to travel told their friends and followers that they were not going to Europe because of the fighting, even though they had planned to go to Italy, Germany or France (Goodger, 2022). This experience suggests that tourists from other continents who are less familiar with Europe often confuse borders, not realising how far apart the states are. This in turn leads to a drop in tourism in the countries concerned, as an influential social media personality can cause others to cancel their planned holidays.
European tourism has faced many challenges over the last four years. It now seems that the sector is managing to recover, but there are still many difficulties to overcome before it can fully recover. The loss of Ukrainian and Russian tourists would need to be replaced by travellers from other countries, but the increased cost of travel has reduced the number of people choosing this form of relaxation. Efforts are being made to revive domestic tourism in almost all countries, with few locals opting to holiday within their country’s borders. However, the complexity of the war and its increasing escalation raise a number of issues in parallel with geopolitical security and tourism.
Summary and conclusion
During war, the importance of travel for society is reassessed. For the people of warring countries, survival is the most important consideration, and tourism is overshadowed by the hardships of everyday life. At the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine shows that foreign tourists from other countries are more at ease with this situation, in many cases preferring to visit areas affected by fighting rather than the coast of a peaceful country.
After February 2022, tourism in Europe, Ukraine and Russia changed. Direct flights to Moscow and St. Petersburg from major European cities have disappeared, the number of Russian visitors to Europe has decreased, and a new tourism term, donation tour, has appeared in the Ukrainian tourism sector. Most of the time, it can be seen that the adaptation to the new situation starts in a short time, so anyone who wants to get to Russia today can do so in the same way as two years ago, it just takes longer and costs more.
Tourists visit a destination primarily for the cultural, natural and religious treasures of a region or area. Many of these were destroyed or damaged in the east and southeast of Ukraine during the war, and are already costing millions of dollars to restore. Without these assets, these areas lose their attractiveness and may not be able to attract more foreign visitors once the war is over. The question is therefore what chances Ukraine has in the tourism sectors in the event of a peace agreement or a lasting ceasefire, what growth it can generate and how it can replace the assets destroyed by the war.
