In our previous analyses, we have regularly looked at the state of the Ukrainian economy in the light of the challenges and difficulties caused by the war. Foreign trade is one of the most important sources of income for the Ukrainian economy, with exports of agricultural products, industrial goods and services being high in value. For the third consecutive year, the war has hampered the country’s export opportunities, with obstacles to sea transport and frequent bottlenecks in land logistics. In the following summary, we look at the data for 2025 known so far from a foreign trade perspective, covering not only trade but also remittances and foreign investment.
The National Bank of Ukraine published its foreign trade figures for 2025 so far at the end of April. As in previous years, the war has caused serious damage to Ukraine’s foreign trade this year, regardless of the EU’s efforts to promote Ukrainian products on the common market. A comparison of the data for 2024 with those for January-February 2025 shows that both exports and imports started from a more favourable position in the previous year.
In January 2025, compared with the same period of the previous year, exports of goods were down by 12.7%, and by 15.3% in February. Imports increased by 9.5% in January and by 15.3% in February compared with the same period last year. The fall in exports is due to the unfavourable situation of the country’s industry, with production shrinking and therefore the volume of goods available for export falling. The same reasons can be seen in the growth of imports: fewer products being produced means that Ukraine needs more imports. In terms of the composition of goods, the most significant falls in exports in 2025 so far are in agricultural products (-18%), minerals (-19.4%) and chemical products (-22%). There is also a significant fall in exports of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, down -14.2% in February compared with the same period last year. The largest increases in import growth were recorded for machinery and equipment (21.2%) and minerals (7.5%). Imports of sawn timber and timber products decreased, with a 9.3% drop in this category of goods compared to the same period last year.
External trade values benefited last year from the European Union maintaining its previous agreement with Ukraine on the transport of goods by road. Thanks to the agreement, in force since 29 June 2022, the volume of imports from Ukraine to the EU by road increased by 42% and their value by 28%, while the volume of EU exports to Ukraine increased by 37% and their value by 50%. In order to improve Ukraine’s access to global markets by facilitating transit through EU countries and strengthening trade links with the EU market, the union and Ukraine have extended their road transport agreement until 31 December 2025.
In addition to foreign trade in goods, it is also worth briefly reviewing changes in the external trade in services indicators.
In terms of services exports, the most important sectors are transport (in particular, pipeline transport), telecommunications and business services. Based on the data available so far, the value of services exports in January-February 2025 declined by 12% compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the contraction in the transport sector. On the services imports side, compared to the same period of the previous year, an increase was observed in January-February this year in some sub-sectors of transport and telecommunications, but overall the total value decreased compared to the previous period (-5.8%). Both the fall in exports and imports are due to similar reasons as those regarding international trade in goods, with the difference that here demand for services has fallen, which together can be attributed to a contraction in production and domestic consumption.
In addition to external trade data, the current account balance also provides a number of interesting data for the period under review.
With the exception of August and December 2024, Ukraine’s current account balance remained negative throughout the year. The deficit is mainly driven by a persistent external trade deficit. As shown in the data in the first graph, Ukraine’s imports have been consistently higher than exports in recent months, and the resulting deficit is also worsening the current account balance. The August and December surpluses favourably adjusted the current account balance due to changes in secondary net income. In these two months, Ukraine benefited from a substantial loan disbursement (USD 6,375 million in August and USD 4,673 million in December), both provided by the European Union.
Remittances have also long been an important part of Ukrainian revenues, but recently the value of such transactions from abroad has been gradually declining. While in January-February 2024 remittances totalled USD 1,640 million, in January-February 2025 they totalled USD 1,332 million. Annual aggregate data also show a gradual decline in the value of remittances (USD 11,292 million in 2023, USD 9,480 million in 2024). Among the most likely reasons for this are the changed remittance patterns of Ukrainians who have moved abroad (in many cases, due to banking costs, they transfer their income to Ukraine by other means, which is not reflected in the official statistics) and a decline in remittances.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine offers many opportunities to improve the economic situation somewhat, despite the difficulties caused by the war. However, current data suggest that investors are more cautious than willing to make new acquisitions.
Foreign direct capital withdrawal in Ukraine was higher in the first two months of last year than in January and February this year (-70% year-on-year). In the case of portfolio investments, the previous year also started less favourably than this year, while the other investment section was affected by the reduction of the amount of money in circulation by the National Bank of Ukraine. The more positive attitude of foreign investors in 2025 was in all likelihood influenced by the possibility of a peace agreement or truce. This creates a more optimistic situation for the investment environment, which is now also planning to revisit Ukraine as an investment destination.
Overall, Ukrainian foreign trade has started another difficult year on the basis of the data so far, but there are several signs that a positive turnaround may be on the way after the harsh winter months. The EU’s extension of the land transport agreement will certainly have a positive impact on Ukrainian export figures, and investor sentiment is more optimistic than last year. Among the difficulties are the internal problems of the economy, which will have a significant impact on these changes. The performance of agriculture and industry could also be decisive for the coming months.
