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It is a fallacy that Hungary is emptying out – the proportion of Hungarians who have moved abroad is average in the EU

The perception that a large part of Hungary’s population has already moved abroad and that only a fraction of the census population lives in the country is often misused as a political narrative. However, according to the latest Eurostat statistics, excluding dual nationals who live across the border because of the treaty of Trianon, only 3.92% of the Hungarian population lived abroad last year, putting us in the middle of the EU ranking.

One of the most important issues in European Union policy today is the increasing immigration to the member states. However, internal population movements between member states are very significant too, also with economic, cultural and social implications. The single market was created in the European Union in 1994, allowing the free movement of persons, services, capital and goods. To ensure the smooth and frictionless flow of these four freedoms, legal, physical and economic barriers had to be removed in order to make the concept a reality. This included, among other measures, harmonising regulatory differences between member states, abolishing border controls in the Schengen area, and abolishing internal and unifying external customs duties.

Eurostat’s database shows the proportion of citizens living abroad (in another EU country) in each EU country. Excluding Hungarian citizens who live abroad due to Trianon, 3.92% of the Hungarian population lived abroad, which is in the middle of the EU average. This is ahead of countries often cited as positive examples, such as Portugal, Estonia, Slovakia, Poland, Croatia and Romania. The lowest rates of emigration in the EU are for Germans (0.86%), Maltese (0.89%) and Swedes (0.9%). By contrast, the highest rates of expatriation are in Portugal (9.4%), Bulgaria (12.2%), Croatia (15%) and Romania (16.5%). The latter state also leads in the number of people having moved abroad, with 3.15 million.

The figure can be referenced here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/18751924/

The figure can be referenced here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/18751979/

Internal EU population flows are mainly directed to neighbouring countries with strong and developed economies. The primary absorption sectors for immigrant labour are manufacturing and health care, as well as low-skilled sectors such as agriculture, construction and services. A common border facilitates the movement of people logistically, and in many cases there are linguistic and cultural links between neighbouring countries. Proximity reduces travel costs, making frequent visits home easier. In addition to linguistic links, historical ties can also facilitate relocation; for example, the legacy of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy has left family ties that make it easier for Hungarians to integrate in Austria. There are also similar links between Austria and Germany, Portugal and Spain, as well as the Balkan and Baltic states. Although there are linguistic similarities and cultural affinities between the two countries of the Iberian Peninsula, France is the main destination for Portuguese people. As well as Hungary, another example of the historical link is the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which split in 1993.

The figure can be referenced here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/18751392/

As shown in the graph above, the top EU destination for Hungarian people is Germany (194,000 people), followed by Austria (100,000). Overall, 376,000 Hungarian citizens lived in other EU countries last year. Similar patterns of population movements can be observed in the other former socialist bloc countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The largest number of people migrated from Poland to Germany, 783,000. Romania has the highest emigration rate among EU member states, with more than 16.5 per cent of the population living abroad (3.15 million people). The main destinations of our eastern neighbours are Italy (1.08 million people), Germany (835,000) and Spain (630,000). Germany has received the largest number of EU citizens among the EU member states, more than 4.6 million. France comes in second, well behind but still hosting one and a half million EU citizens.

The motivations for emigration are many and varied; in addition to the desire for adventure, family ties and education, they are primarily economic. Higher wages, better employment prospects and living standards make countries with advanced economies and more fortunate histories attractive. Immigration also provides some positive benefits for Western European countries, such as reducing labour shortages. The quality of public services and the orientation of a country’s political leadership can also encourage people to move. After a while, population movement becomes a self-generating process, with countries with established immigrant communities becoming even more attractive. The resulting social networks make the integration process smoother.

However, internal population movements also have negative economic consequences, both for the host country and the country of origin. A significant surplus of labour in the destination country can depress wage levels, while labour shortages can arise in the source country, as it is more educated employees of working age who tend to move abroad. The phenomenon of “brain drain” was analysed in a previous article. This latter factor can make it difficult to finance and maintain the various social welfare systems and has a negative impact on the growth of the economy as a whole. Conversely, the sudden influx of people can put considerable pressure on social welfare systems in host countries too. Population movements also have a significant impact on house prices, pushing them up in the host country and down in the source country.

Junior kutató | Published writings

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